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Martes, 20 de Noviembre de 2007 15:59 |
-------- Mensaje original --------
God may indeed be B
http://www.economist.com/subscriptions/offer.cfm?campaign=168-XLMT
BRAZIL'S ECONOMY
Nov 15th 2007
God may indeed be Brazilian after all
WHEN Francisco Suares, a Portuguese explorer, wrote home to his brother
in Lisbon about Brazil's natural bounty in 1596, he declared himself
"ashamed to write it, fearing that I shall not be believed." And so it
remains today. Brazil's forests are bigger than anywhere else's. Its
soil is so fertile that some trees grow to full maturity quicker than
people do. Beneath the soil lie huge mineral deposits that are raw
material for China's double-digit growth. Brazil is already on its way
to becoming an alternative-energy superpower. And as if to prove a
popular saying that "God is Brazilian", it now seems that there are
billions more barrels of oil than previously thought lying beneath deep
waters off the country's coastline.
Just how many billions is unclear, but Petrobras, Brazil's
state-controlled oil company, announced earlier this month that it
reckons the Tupi oilfield contains between 5 billion and 8 billion
barrels. That may not quite yet put Brazil in the same league as
Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, as Dilma Rousseff, President Luiz Inacio
Lula da Silva's chief of staff who also chairs Petrobras's board,
excitedly proclaimed. But the higher estimate would make the Tupi field
alone equal to all of Norway's reserves. It contains light crude, which
is less expensive to refine and therefore worth more. And there may be
other big deposits to be found nearby.
Jose Sergio Gabrielli, Petrobras's chief executive, refuses to
speculate about how big an oil power Brazil might become. But he does
concede that there is the potential for many more discoveries on the
scale of Tupi--which itself is the world's second-biggest strike in 20
years, after Kazakhstan's 12 billion-barrel Kashagan field, discovered
in 2000.
Most of Brazil's oil comes from the Campos basin, in the waters off Rio
de Janeiro. It is typically found at depths of 1,000-2,000 metres below
the seabed. Below that lies a huge layer of salt, at some points more
than a mile thick. This stretches both north and south to the hitherto
less prolific basins of Espirito Santo and Santos. It is below the
salt, in the Santos basin, that Petrobras discovered Tupi. The company
has also found "sub-salt" oil in Espirito Santo, although it has not
yet assessed the scale of this. Mr Gabrielli believes that the two
basins have yielded relatively little oil to date not because it is not
there, but because it lies deeper underground, below the salt.
Tupi's oil will be hard to extract. Petrobras is a world leader in
deep-water oil production, but Tupi is farther down than any of its
existing fields. Drilling through the salt layer and the hard rock
beneath brings further technical difficulties. The first test-well
alone cost $240m. Moreover, there is a shortage of skilled labour and
equipment throughout the oil industry at the moment--although Mr
Gabrielli says Petrobras can transfer staff and resources from other
projects if necessary.
Despite these caveats, it is reasonable to assume that Brazil's economy
and currency will get a boost when the oil starts flowing, it is hoped,
in 2010. The discovery might also tip the balance of power in South
America further in Brazil's favour. Already self-sufficient in oil,
Brazil is now likely to become a significant exporter. That may reduce
the clout of Venezuela's oil-rich president, Hugo Chavez, in the
region. As if to underline this, Petrobras announced on November 13th
that it was pulling out of a joint venture in Venezuela.
Brazil's drive towards oil self-sufficiency follows the opening up of
the industry to foreign investment in the 1990s, when the government
also floated some 40% of Petrobras's shares on the stockmarket.
Britain's BG Group has a 25% stake in the Tupi field, and Portugal's
Galp Energia holds 10%.
The government followed up the announcement of the Tupi field by
withdrawing neighbouring blocks from an auction of exploration rights
due later this month. That might signal rising petro-nationalism. But
it also looked prudent, since those blocks may be worth much more as
more becomes known about Tupi.
Amid the euphoria, which included an instant leap of 26% in Petrobras's
share price, came suspicion about the timing of the announcement. Less
than a week after it was made, the company announced a poor set of
results, with operating profit down 22% compared with the same quarter
last year.
Petrobras has also faced mounting difficulties in supplying natural gas
to thermal power plants, especially since its fields in Bolivia were
quasi-nationalised last year. Some see the Tupi announcement as an
attempt to distract attention from this. "It is like throwing a second
ball onto a football pitch when the game is going against you," says
Alexandre Marinis of Mosaico, a political consultancy.
Electricity rationing under the previous government in 2001-2 helped
Lula to win office. One solution now would be to raise the price of
gas, but officials are worried that this would feed into inflation, and
jeopardise the scope for further cuts in interest rates. Mario Pereira,
an energy consultant, reckons that the risk of electricity shortages
should wane after 2008, if Petrobras completes a planned liquefied
natural-gas terminal on time.
That may be a big if. Lula and Ms Rousseff, a former Trotskyist who is
sometimes touted as a potential presidential candidate for the ruling
Workers' Party, were keen to associate the government with Petrobras's
strike. But the oil may not start flowing until after the next
presidential election in 2010. Energy may be an electoral headache
rather than a boon for the government, if not for the country.
See this article with graphics and related items at http://www.economist.com/world/la/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10134215&CFID=26457438&CFTOKEN=199412
Go to http://www.economist.com
for more global news, views and analysis from the Economist Group.
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